This outcome resolves to Yes if the Decision Value equals the Prior Value, or if the parent question's cancellation, postponement, or decision-deadline rule applies. This market has three possible results: No change, Decrease, or Increase. Exactly one corresponding named outcome resolves to Yes; the other two and the protocol-created fallback resolve to No.
It covers the September 2026 Federal Reserve decision concerning federal funds target range upper bound, scheduled for 2026-09-16 18:00 UTC UTC (the "Decision"). The Decision Value is the numeric value of federal funds target range upper bound announced by federalreserve.gov.
The Prior Value is the value of that same measure in effect immediately before the Decision. No change resolves to Yes if the Decision Value equals the Prior Value. Decrease resolves to Yes if the Decision Value is lower. Increase resolves to Yes if the Decision Value is higher.
If the Decision is rescheduled, the rescheduled decision applies if federalreserve.gov publishes it by 2026-09-23 18:00 UTC UTC. If the Decision is canceled or postponed without a replacement decision, or no official Decision Value is published by 2026-09-23 18:00 UTC UTC, No change resolves to Yes.
Policy changes outside the scheduled Decision are ignored except when establishing the Prior Value. If Federal Reserve replaces federal funds target range upper bound, the closest official successor measure identified by federalreserve.gov is used.
Resolution uses the initially published decision; later revisions do not change the resolution. federalreserve.gov is the primary resolution source; independent reputable reporting may be used if it has not published the relevant decision.
